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The Emission Mirage: Understanding What We Count—and What We Miss

By: Tatwadhika Siddhartha, Climate Strategy Project Lead – Bestari Sustainability

“If we really wanted to count every emission, we could put a sensor on every chimney, vehicle, and rice paddy. But how many millions of sensors would that take. And more importantly, who would pay for them?”

That question gets to the heart of an issue we rarely talk about, while businesses and governments alike are rushing to decarbonize, but the foundation of climate action, which is our ability to measure emission, is far from perfect. Yet, this imperfect foundation is what shapes carbon taxes, net-zero targets, ESG disclosures, and climate claims on everything from food labels to investment portfolios.

Across the globe, companies are being asked to “know their numbers”. How much do you emit? How much will you cut? How quickly can you do it? But the problem is that not all emissions are equally visible, equally measurable, or equally accounted for.

Some emissions are relatively easy to calculate. For example, if a manufacturing plant burns diesel, it can estimate emissions using fuel purchase records and standard emission factors. These are known as Scope 1 emissions, or known as direct emissions from sources a company owns or controls.

Others are trickier. For example, Scope 2. The emission itself comes from purchased electricity, which means it depends on where your energy comes from, while the carbon footprint of a kilowatt-hour can vary dramatically. Let us take an example of Indonesia’s grid, they heavily reliant on coal in certain regions, meaning electricity use there is more carbon-intensive than in places with a greener mix

Afterward, there is Scope 3, or known as the elephant in the emissions room. It also includes everything upstream and downstream, starting with the emissions that come from the material making you buy, transporting them, using your products, and even dealing with them after disposal. For most companies, Scope 3 accounts for over 70% of their total footprint, and yet, it is often the least measured.

No one is expecting perfection because emission inventories are estimates; built from a mix of real measurements, activity data (like fuel use or kilometers travelled), and standardized emission factors. Hold up, even the best estimates face big challenges.

However, some of the country’s biggest emissions do not come from smokestacks or traffic, yet it comes from peatland fires and land-use change fires. In 2015, during the wildfire season, daily emission from peat and forest fires exceeded the daily emission of the entire United States. It is not an easy thing to track, because they happen across remote areas, fluctuate with weather, and are only partially visible through satellites. When it has to be measured, the data is backward-looking, therefore by the time we quantify the damage, the carbon is already in the atmosphere.

Similarly, small-scale industries and informal sectors contribute unaccounted emissions like brick kilns, food processors, backup diesel generators, which rarely make it into national inventories. These operations are hard to monitor, scattered across the country, and often unregistered, while in aggregate, they contribute a significant share of real emissions.

Even in formal sectors, data gaps are still a real challenge. For example, supply chain emissions, most companies end up using broad averages instead of real data, while it makes sense, yet not every company has the power or tools to track emissions in real time from every supplier, transporter, or customer. But this also means that the final number in an emissions report often carries more uncertainty than it seems on paper.

Indonesia and many developing countries are facing greater challenges in counting the emission. Starting with underfunded government reporting systems, limited MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification) infrastructure, and many outdated emission factors. For example, coal, mining, and agriculture are the sectors that underreporting became the norm, it is simply because site-specific data is missing.

The result is a paradox; we are building sophisticated climate strategies on top of data systems that are still catching up.

So, What is the Point of Counting?

You might be tempted to ask; if the numbers are not exact, why bother counting at all?

The answer lies in direction, not perfection.

Emission inventories are not designed to be accurate down to the last decimal point. Because the real purpose is to disclose where your emissions come from, in which it can unlock the biggest opportunities for reduction effort, and how your footprint changes over time; in other words it does not need to be exact, but it needs to be useful.

Let us think like driving a car without a speedometer or fuel gauge. Although if those instruments are not perfectly calibrated, they still help you avoid running out of gas or getting a ticket. This is how carbon accounting works, it gives you a dashboard to manage risks, spot inefficiencies, and plan ahead. It is just as important as keeping the business going, because it signals investors and regulators that you understand the impact, while also building awareness inside your company that emissions are not only a planetary concern, but they are a business issue too.

Why Businesses Cannot Wait

More than ever, companies are expected to take climate seriously; not just in words, but in numbers.

On the other hand, the governments are responding to the demand. Indonesia is currently preparing to implement a carbon tax and has already piloted an emissions trading system (ETS) for the power sector. In the foreseeable future, more sectors, starting from cement, fertilizer, pulp and paper, are planned to be included. When the time comes, companies then will need reliable emissions data to participate, comply, and avoid financial penalties.

Global buyers are also tightening the screws. For example, The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose a carbon price on imported goods like steel, aluminum, and fertilizers; unless exporters can prove their emissions are low or well-managed. If companies cannot provide a clear, defensible carbon data risk, then they will lose access to key markets.

Then there is the ESG push. Investors and financial regulators are increasingly demanding standardized sustainability disclosures. In Indonesia, OJK’s POJK 51 requires sustainability reporting. Globally, the ISSB standards (IFRS S1 and S2) will soon become mandatory in many jurisdictions. These frameworks ask companies to disclose climate risks and GHG emissions, including Scope 3.

None of this is hypothetical since the regulatory environment is changing now. The companies that are starting to count today are the ones that will remain competitive tomorrow.

So Where Should You Begin?

The good news is: you do not need to boil the ocean. Most companies can begin by:

  • Measuring their Scope 1 and 2 emissions using energy and fuel data they already have.
  • Estimating key categories of Scope 3 emissions using available supply chain data and industry benchmarks.
  • Identifying emissions “hotspots” where improvements would make the biggest difference, it could be energy efficiency, supplier engagement, or logistics optimization.
  • Building an internal system (even simple excel-based ones) to track progress year over year.

From there, you can refine. Bring in automation, upgrade to more detailed lifecycle models, collect better supplier data and use digital MRV tools. But the journey always begins with the first footprint.

Although your first inventory is rough, it still creates a baseline. From the baseline, then you can set a target, following that, eventually you can build a roadmap. This is not about perfection, but momentum.

Technology Helps but Leadership Matters More

We now have more tools than ever, starting from satellites that can spot methane leaks from orbit, AI systems that can scan emissions reports for anomalies, IoT devices that can monitor energy use in real time, and even a blockchain is being tested to create tamper-proof emissions records.

But technology only works when paired with intent. Someone has to ask the questions, allocate the budget, make the calls. In other words: data does not lead, yet leaders do.

Companies that act early on carbon measurement are not just future-proofing. They are signaling credibility, building trust with customers, suppliers, and regulators, as well as getting ahead in a world that’s moving, fast, toward transparency and accountability.

From Mirage to Action: Why Start Now

It is not a problem if we cannot count every last molecule of CO2. What matters is acting responsibly with the best information we have, and continuously improving from there.

Every meaningful transition starts with one step: choosing to act rather than to wait. Because progress is rarely perfect, but always possible.

In the end, the biggest emissions we miss are not the ones we fail to count, but the ones we fail to cut.

References

CarbonNeutral. (2024). Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions explained. Retrieved July 31, 2025, from https://www.carbonneutral.com/news/scope-1-2-3-emissions-explained

Copernicus Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. (2019). New estimate of particulate emissions from Indonesian peat fires in September–October 2015. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19(17), 11105–11126. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/11105/2019/

GHG Protocol. (n.d.). FAQ: What are Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions? World Resources Institute & World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Retrieved July 31, 2025, from https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/FAQ.pdf

Indonesia Ministry of Finance (Kementerian Keuangan). (n.d.). Indonesia berkomitmen pada penurunan emisi. Retrieved July 31, 2025, from https://www.kemenkeu.go.id/en/informasi-publik/publikasi/berita-utama/Indonesia-Berkomitmen-Penurunan-Emisi

Mongabay. (2015, October 16). Carbon emissions from Indonesia’s peat fires exceed emissions from entire U.S. economy. Mongabay Environmental News. https://news.mongabay.com/2015/10/carbon-emissions-from-indonesias-peat-fires-exceed-emissions-from-entire-u-s-economy/

Nature. (2015). Peat fires: Emissions likely to worsen. Nature, 527, 305. https://doi.org/10.1038/527305a

NO-BURN. (2025). Ramping up ambition on waste methane and just transition in Indonesia: Recommendations for Indonesia’s second NDC. Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives. https://www.no-burn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Second-NDC-Indonesia-1.pdf

Reccessary. (2025, March 18). Indonesia unveils plan for cap-and-trade carbon market targeting industrial sectors. Carbon Management News. https://www.reccessary.com/en/news/indonesia-plans-cap-and-trade-carbon-market-industrial-sectors

World Resources Institute (WRI). (2015, October 14). Indonesia’s fire outbreaks producing more daily emissions than entire US economy. WRI Insights.

https://www.wri.org/insights/indonesias-fire-outbreaks-producing-more-daily-emissions-entire-us-economy

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